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Theory of change & project logic
From problem to impact: causal chain and assumptions.
4 quiz questions
What a theory of change is
A theory of change (ToC) is a reasoned hypothesis about how exactly your project will turn resources into lasting change. Without a ToC, the application becomes a list of activities disconnected from results.
The classic change logic
•Inputs: money, team time, equipment, expertise.
•Activities: trainings, research, campaigns, services.
•Outputs: number of trainings, manual circulation, campaign reach.
•Outcomes: change in knowledge, behavior, access, or attitude in a specific group.
•Impact: systemic change at the community, sector, or policy level.
Why assumptions matter critically
Between logic links there are always invisible transitions: "if we train people, they will use it", "if we advocate, politicians will listen". These are assumptions. If an assumption fails — the whole logic collapses, no matter how many activities you ran.
How to work with assumptions
•Make them visible: write 1-2 assumptions for each transition.
•Assess risk: how likely is it that the assumption fails?
•Plan B: what will you do if it does?
A strong application is one where the reader sees "ah, that's why this could work", not "this is how the authors wished it would work".
Common mistakes
•Activities-driven thinking: first inventing trainings, then trying to figure out what they lead to.
•Overclaim: one NGO promising to "reduce corruption in the region" — scale mismatched to instruments.
•Lost outcome level: jumping from outputs straight to impact, skipping changes in people.